https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/s10051-026-01176-5
Research - Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
Nonlinear dynamics induced by environmental variability in a predator–prey model under climate change
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, No. 111 Changjiang West Road, 223300, Huaian, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
2
School of New Energy Science and Engineering, Xinyu University, No. 2666 Sunshine Avenue, High Tech Zone, 338004, Xinyu, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China
a
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Received:
6
November
2025
Accepted:
27
April
2026
Published online:
14
May
2026
Abstract
This study develops a novel predator–prey model incorporating climate change and environmental fluctuations, where climate change is defined as the synergistic consequence of global warming and wind and environmental fluctuations are characterized by the mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. Mathematically, we investigate the global uniqueness of positive solutions, the existence of ergodic stationary distributions, and derive sufficient conditions for mean persistence and stochastic extinction, laying a rigorous theoretical foundation for numerical analyses. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to reveal key parameters’s regulatory effects on population density in the deterministic framework. Ecologically, numerical simulations uncover critical findings: (i) Environmental carrying capacity variations stabilize predator–prey interactions by inhibiting global warming-induced periodic solutions; (ii) Enhanced wind can eliminate the periodic solutions induced by global warming, whereas reduced wind leads to an increase in the frequency and a decrease in the amplitude of such periodic solutions; (iii) Stronger wind benefits prey but impairs predators in stochastic environments; (iv) Global warming and wind jointly modulate the skewness of the population’s stationary distribution. This work offers innovative perspectives on understanding climate change-driven dynamics of predator–prey interactions in randomly perturbed ecosystems.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to EDP Sciences, SIF and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2026
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
