Eur. Phys. J. B 4, 387-399 (1998)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s100510050394

The sharp peak-flat trough pattern and critical speculation

¹ L.P.T.H.E., Université Paris 7, 2 place Jussieu, 75251 Paris Cedex 05, France
² L.P.M.C. (CNRS UMR6622.) , Université de Nice-Sophia Antipolis, B.P. 71, 06108 Nice Cedex 2, France
³ IGPP and ESS Department, UCLA, Box 951567, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, USA

Corresponding authors: ^a roehner@lpthe.jussieu.fr - ^b sornette@naxos.unice.fr

Received: 2 February 1998
Accepted: 22 February 1998
Published online: 15 August 1998

Abstract

We find empirically a characteristic sharp peak-flat trough pattern in a large set of commodity prices. We argue that the sharp peak structure reflects an endogenous inter-market organization, and that peaks may be seen as local "singularities" resulting from imitation and herding. These findings impose a novel stringent constraint on the construction of models.