Eur. Phys. J. B 71, 289-292 (2009)
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2009-00308-y

Coarse-grained model of long-term supply of oil

¹ Department of Applied Physics, Chalmers University of Technology, 41296 Göteborg, Sweden
² Boreskov Institute of Catalysis, Russian Academy of Sciences, 630090 Novosibirsk, Russia

Corresponding author: ^a zhdanov@catalysis.ru

Received: 22 April 2009
Revised: 9 July 2009
Published online: 17 September 2009

Abstract

The author proposes a coarse-grained kinetic model of the supply of oil during the next 50-year period. The oil supply, characterized by amount of oil extracted per day, is considered to depend on the oil price, existing capacities of oil extraction, the ability to find and develop new oil reserves, and also on the delay between investments and oil production. With reasonable parameters, the model predicts what may happen in realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios.