Eur. Phys. J. B (2014) 87: 266
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2014-50264-4

Regular Article

Global alliances effect in coalition forming

¹ CREA – Center of Research in Applied Epistemology, Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau, France
² CEVIPOF – Center for Political Research, Sciences Po and CNRS, 98 rue de l’Université, 75007 Paris, France

^a e-mail: galina.vino@gmail.com

Received: 22 April 2014
Received in final form: 30 July 2014
Published online: 10 November 2014

Abstract

Coalition forming is investigated among countries, which are coupled with short range interactions, under the influence of externally-set opposing global alliances. The model extends a recent Natural Model of coalition forming inspired from Statistical Physics, where instabilities are a consequence of decentralized maximization of the individual benefits of actors. In contrast to physics where spins can only evaluate the immediate cost/benefit of a flip of orientation, countries have a long horizon of rationality, which associates with the ability to envision a way up to a better configuration even at the cost of passing through intermediate loosing states. The stabilizing effect is produced through polarization by the global alliances of either a particular unique global interest factor or multiple simultaneous ones. This model provides a versatile theoretical tool for the analysis of real cases and design of novel strategies. Such analysis is provided for several real cases including the Eurozone. The results shed a new light on the understanding of the complex phenomena of planned stabilization in the coalition forming.