Eur. Phys. J. B (2016) 89: 13
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2015-50845-7

Regular Article

Dynamical prediction of flu seasonality driven by ambient temperature: influenza vs. common cold

Department of Theoretical Physics, Kursk State University, Radishcheva st., 33, 305000 Kursk, Russia

^a e-mail: postnicov@gmail.com

Received: 9 December 2014
Received in final form: 2 June 2015
Published online: 20 January 2016

Abstract

This work presents a comparative analysis of Influenzanet data for influenza itself and common cold in the Netherlands during the last 5 years, from the point of view of modelling by linearised SIRS equations parametrically driven by the ambient temperature. It is argued that this approach allows for the forecast of common cold, but not of influenza in a strict sense. The difference in their kinetic models is discussed with reference to the clinical background.