Regular Article

Influence of petroleum and gas trade on EU economies from the reduced Google matrix analysis of UN COMTRADE data

¹ Institut UTINAM, OSU THETA, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, CNRS, Besançon, France
² Departamento de Física Teórica, GIyA, CNEA, Av. Libertador 8250, (C1429BNP) Buenos Aires, Argentina
³ Laboratoire de Physique Théorique, IRSAMC, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, 31062 Toulouse, France

^a e-mail: dima@irsamc.ups-tlse.fr

Received: 5 March 2019
Received in final form: 16 May 2019
Published online: 5 August 2019

Abstract

Using the United Nations COMTRADE database (United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, http://comtrade.un.org/db/ (accessed January 2019)) we apply the reduced Google matrix (REGOMAX) algorithm to analyze the multiproduct world trade in years 2004–2016. Our approach allows determining the trade balance sensitivity of a group of countries to a specific product price increase from a specific exporting country taking into account all direct and indirect trade pathways via all world countries exchanging 61 UN COMTRADE identified trade products. On the basis of this approach we present the influence of trade in petroleum and gas products from Russia, USA, Saudi Arabia and Norway determining the sensitivity of each EU country. We show that the REGOMAX approach provides a new and more detailed analysis of trade influence propagation comparing to the usual approach based on export and import flows.