https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/s10051-022-00457-z
Regular Article - Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19
1
Joint Institute for High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences, 13/19, Izhorskaia Str., 125412, Moscow, Russia
2
Institut für Physik, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 12489, Berlin, Germany
3
Prokhorov General Physics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 38 Vavilova St., 119991, Moscow, Russia
Received:
4
July
2022
Accepted:
16
November
2022
Published online:
29
November
2022
The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This model can be considered as a kind of combination of SIR and SIS models for the case of competition of two strains of the same virus with different contagiousness in a population. The obtained equations and results can be directly implemented for practical calculations of the replacement of strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A comparison between the estimated replacement time and the corresponding statistics shows reasonable agreement.
Copyright comment Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to EDP Sciences, SIF and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
