Eur. Phys. J. B (2017) 90: 161
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2017-80040-9

Regular Article

Method of confidence domains in the analysis of noise-induced extinction for tritrophic population system

Ural Federal University, Lenina Ave., 51, Ekaterinburg 620000, Russia

^a e-mail: lev.ryashko@urfu.ru

Received: 15 January 2017
Received in final form: 6 April 2017
Published online: 4 September 2017

Abstract

A problem of the analysis of the noise-induced extinction in multidimensional population systems is considered. For the investigation of conditions of the extinction caused by random disturbances, a new approach based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique and confidence domains is suggested, and applied to tritrophic population model of interacting prey, predator and top predator. This approach allows us to analyze constructively the probabilistic mechanisms of the transition to the noise-induced extinction from both equilibrium and oscillatory regimes of coexistence. In this analysis, a method of principal directions for the reducing of the dimension of confidence domains is suggested. In the dispersion of random states, the principal subspace is defined by the ratio of eigenvalues of the stochastic sensitivity matrix. A detailed analysis of two scenarios of the noise-induced extinction in dependence on parameters of considered tritrophic system is carried out.