Regular Article

Preventing noise-induced ecological shifts: stochastic sensitivity analysis and control

Department of Theoretical and Mathematical Physics, Institute of Natural Science, Ural Federal University, Lenina ave., 51, Ekaterinburg 620000, Russia

^a e-mail: lev.ryashko@urfu.ru

Received: 26 July 2019
Received in final form: 8 September 2019
Published online: 11 November 2019

Abstract

The phenomenon of the noise-induced extinction in population systems is studied. To prevent such undesirable ecological shift, we propose a new control approach based on the synthesis of the reduced stochastic sensitivity of equilibrium regime. Key points of this approach are demonstrated for the conceptual Ricker-type population model combining the Allee effect, delay, and random disturbances. This bistable population model possesses coexisting attractors corresponding to persistence and extinction regimes. To stabilize the persistence regime, feedback regulators are constructed to minimize the stochastic sensitivity of the equilibria. Cases of complete and incomplete information are reviewed and discussed.